Exchange Rates and Price Variability and Their Effects on the Dynamics of Demand for Indonesian Fresh and Frozen Tuna Exports

This study examines and analyzes the effect of the volatility of tuna prices and exchange rates on the demand for Indonesian tuna exports. This study uses monthly time series data on fresh tuna export volume, frozen tuna export volume, fresh tuna prices, frozen tuna prices, and the rupiah exchange rate from January 2012 to December 2020. This data was obtained from U.N. Comtrade, the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), and the Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries. Cointegration and Error Correction approaches were applied to examine tuna export demand, which is assumed to be a function of fresh tuna price (HTS), frozen tuna price (HTB), frozen tuna price relative to fresh tuna (HBS), frozen tuna price variability (VTB), fresh tuna price variability (VTS), real exchange rate variability (EXC), and exchange rate variability (VEXC). Factors that partially affect fresh tuna exports in Indonesia are FZTE, FRTP, FZTP, and HBS in the short term (ECM), while in the long term, there are no influential factors.