The semi-periphery's ‘defence dividend’: redistribution of labour in Europe's defence industry

The ramp up of European defence industrial production raises a critical question for the future shape and competitiveness of the European Defence Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB): will it continue to be dominated and limited by core European Union (EU) producers or is there an ongoing redistribution of defence production? We argue a significant redistribution is underway, although not caused by recent geopolitical shocks, but by the long-term agency of the semi-periphery itself. Our analysis identifies a distinct long-term pathway of defence-industrial upgrading in Eastern and Central Europe (ECE), which unfolds within the broader context of Dependent Market Economies (DMEs) and which we term the Militarised DME (M-DME). The EU’s recent geoeconomic turn did not create this trajectory but validated and accelerated it. Using time-series cluster analysis of EU arms export data, we identify a sustained rise in high-value-added (HVA) exports associated primarily with indigenously controlled actors. Ultimately, our findings point to a contested re-division of labour that predates the current security crisis and has important implications for European strategic autonomy, industrial integration, and the future shape of the EDTIB.