THE_TEMPORAL_REFERENCE_PROJECTION_BIAS__TRPB_.pdf

AbstractThis manuscript proposes the Temporal Reference-Projection Bias (TRPB), a candidate conceptual framework for investigating how events situated at different temporal positions are selected, weighted, and used as references when people interpret, evaluate, predict, or assign responsibility to other events.The framework is explicitly not restricted to two-event comparisons. Its general form is an N-event temporal reference network in which one or more reference events may inform judgments about one or more target events. The proposed architecture distinguishes chronological order, judgment-reference relations, causal relations, event time, information-availability time, and judgment time. These distinctions permit the framework to represent six cross-temporal reference directions: past-to-present, present-to-past, past-to-future, future-to-past, present-to-future, and future-to-present. References between events located within the same broad temporal zone are also represented.The manuscript specifies a primary multi-event case, a reference-weighting matrix, a generalized judgment function, candidate calibration-error measures, operational variables, a proposed cognitive process architecture, and ten testable hypotheses. It further outlines twelve possible research domains, boundary conditions, competing explanations, falsification criteria, an experimental program, and a research-paper completion roadmap.The central scientific distinction is between a temporal reference effect and a temporal reference-induced bias. A judgment may change when a reference is emphasized without becoming less accurate or less defensible. Accordingly, TRPB is treated as a proposed theoretical construct whose distinctiveness, measurement validity, empirical scope, and explanatory value remain to be established. No original empirical findings are claimed in this manuscript.Keywords: temporal reference; cognitive bias; N-event model; temporal reasoning; reference selection; judgment: calibration; outcome bias; hindsight bias; causal inference