Impact of Salinity on Rice Production in Vulnerable Southern Coastal Regions of Bangladesh: A Case Study Through a Cobb–Douglas Stochastic Production Function Model

ABSTRACT Salinity in coastal areas has a significant effect on the technical efficiency (maximum potential yield utilizing available inputs) of rice production and subsequently reduces food security in developing countries. We examined the salinity status and its impact on overall rice production across seasonal cycles in the southern coastal region of Bangladesh, utilizing data from 464 farmers from vulnerable coastal areas. The estimation from the Cobb–Douglas stochastic production function revealed that salinity has a statistically negative relationship with rice yield. Our study revealed that technical efficiency increased when farmers adopted salt‐tolerant rice varieties and special techniques to manage salinity problems. Consequently, the profit per hectare was greater in the low‐salinity zone than in the moderate‐ and high‐salinity zones. We also find from binary logistic regression that with a greater possibility of yield loss, rice quality destruction, and salt land, farmers were more likely to migrate from cultivated rice to other crops because of salinity problems. In contrast, higher income, more consultations with extension officers and other farmers, and training knowledge, the likelihood of migrating from rice cultivation is lower. To mitigate salinity problems and ensure a sustainable future, salt‐tolerant hybrid rice varieties need to be developed by research institutes, and frequent consultation and training need to be arranged by extension departments in Bangladesh.