Global warming intensifies compound renewable energy droughts

The transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy is essential for mitigating human-induced climate change and achieving climate neutrality, requiring reliable and resilient renewable energy systems. However, global warming is expected to increase the instability of renewable energy resources, particularly during periods of simultaneous low wind and solar power generation, known as renewable energy droughts. Here, we investigate renewable energy droughts globally under 1.5∘, 2∘ and 3∘C global warming levels using CMIP6 multi-model simulations, explicitly capturing their compound nature and the joint dependence between wind and solar resources. Results show that renewable energy droughts intensify progressively with warming, with statistically significant changes in duration, frequency, and intensity affecting 69.4%, 74.0%, and 50.2% of the global land area, respectively, at 3∘C global warming level. Machine learning analysis identifies solar radiation as the dominant driver of renewable energy drought intensification, with influence strengthening under higher global warming levels. These findings highlight the need to integrate compound risk assessments into renewable energy planning to ensure system reliability in a warming world. Global warming intensifies renewable energy droughts by reducing wind and solar resources, with greater warming leading to more severe renewable energy droughts, as indicated by climate model projections and machine learning analysis.