Modelling the expected and potentially preventable burden of infection-related cancer among newly arrived migrants in the European Union

International migration is rising globally. Newly arrived migrants (defined as individuals relocating into countries in the European Union) are a European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) priority population for entry health assessments--offering opportunities to prevent infection-related cancers but rarely implemented in practice. Using migration, cancer incidence, and intervention data, we modelled the burden of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), cervical cancer (CvC), and gastric cancer (GC) and the proportion potentially preventable by interventions: HBV vaccination, HBV and HCV screen-and-treat, HPV vaccination, cervical screening, and H. pylori screen-and-treat. We estimated 635,000 cancer cases over their lifetime (144,000 HCC, 155,000 CvC, 336,000 GC). Assuming full uptake, ECDC-recommended hepatitis interventions could prevent 15% of HCC cases; HPV vaccination and cervical screening could prevent 65% and 60% of CvC cases among eligible migrants, respectively; and H. pylori screen-and-treat could prevent 44% of GC cases among all migrants. Expanding eligibility could further increase impact.

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Publication Details

Journal
medRxiv
Published
2026-10-29
DOI
https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.10.28.26366414
Primary Topic
Global Cancer Incidence and Screening
Type
preprint

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preprint

Modelling the expected and potentially preventable burden of infection-related cancer among newly arrived migrants in the European Union

Catharina J. Alberts, Iacopo Baussano, Irene Man, Freddie Bray et al.
2 links
medRxiv
Global Cancer Incidence and Screening
preprint

Modelling the expected and potentially preventable burden of infection-related cancer among newly arrived migrants in the European Union

Catharina J. Alberts, Iacopo Baussano, Irene Man, Freddie Bray, Andrea Gini, Rachel Wittenauer, Damien Georges, Stefano Rosso, Cancer RADAR working group, Jin Young Park
preprint en

Abstract

International migration is rising globally. Newly arrived migrants (defined as individuals relocating into countries in the European Union) are a European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) priority population for entry health assessments--offering opportunities to prevent infection-related cancers but rarely implemented in practice. Using migration, cancer incidence, and intervention data, we modelled the burden of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), cervical cancer (CvC), and gastric cancer (GC) and the proportion potentially preventable by interventions: HBV vaccination, HBV and HCV screen-and-treat, HPV vaccination, cervical screening, and H. pylori screen-and-treat. We estimated 635,000 cancer cases over their lifetime (144,000 HCC, 155,000 CvC, 336,000 GC). Assuming full uptake, ECDC-recommended hepatitis interventions could prevent 15% of HCC cases; HPV vaccination and cervical screening could prevent 65% and 60% of CvC cases among eligible migrants, respectively; and H. pylori screen-and-treat could prevent 44% of GC cases among all migrants. Expanding eligibility could further increase impact.

medRxiv
Azienda Ospedaliera Citta' della Salute e della Scienza di Torino (IT), GGD Amsterdam (NL), Piedmont Reference Center for Epidemiology and Cancer Prevention (IT), Amsterdam University Medical Centers (NL), Centre international de recherche sur le cancer (FR)
World Health Organization, ZonMw
Good health and well-being
Global Cancer Incidence and Screening
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