Predictors of Candidates' Performance in the Unified Tertiary Matriculation Examination (UTME) in South-West Nigeria (2010–2024)

This study examined the predictors of candidates' performance in Nigeria's Unified Tertiary Matriculation Examination (UTME) in South-west Nigeria, and the extent to which UTME scores and historical performance patterns predict subsequent academic and examination outcomes, over the period 2010–2024. A retrospective cohort design linked UTME and first-year academic records for 2,250 undergraduates admitted between 2010 and 2024 to six universities (four federal, two state) across Lagos, Oyo, Osun and Ekiti States, supplemented by survey data from 750 teachers and thematic analysis of teacher and computer-based-testing (CBT) centre personnel accounts. The study drew on the Education Production Function, Messick's unified view of validity, Human Capital Theory and Social Reproduction Theory. A researcher-developed instrument, the Assessment of Factors Influencing UTME Performance Questionnaire, showed good internal consistency (α = .84; subscale range .72–.86) and a six-factor structure confirmed by exploratory factor analysis (KMO = .87; Bartlett's p < .001). UTME score was positively associated with first-year CGPA, r = .681, 95% CI [.658, .703], p < .001, representing a substantial share of shared variance between the two measures. A regression of UTME score on background characteristics showed that CBT familiarity, school type, study hours, guardian education and school location were each positively and significantly associated with UTME performance (all p < .001), with gender showing a smaller but significant association (p = .030). Historical UTME performance data also significantly predicted future candidates' performance patterns, F(1, 2248) = 326.28, p < .001, R² = .127, indicating moderate but meaningful forecasting value. Qualitative accounts from teachers and CBT-centre personnel identified digital readiness, family and socioeconomic support, study practices, and examination-centre infrastructure as perceived influences on performance. The findings support the continued use of UTME as one component of admission decisions, but the associations with school context and digital familiarity point to unequal preparation opportunities that raise equity concerns. Contextualised admission benchmarks, multiple admission criteria, CBT familiarisation programmes, and expanded CBT infrastructure are recommended.