Population health potential as an integral public health metric: A descriptive and analytical retrospective study

Background. Population health serves as an integral reflection of health status for a geographically defined population. Shaped by a combination of numerous factors, population health is evaluated through both objective and subjective medical and demographic indicators. As a reflection of the quantitative and qualitative aspects of health accumulated by society, as well as the reserves developed through active and healthy lifestyles, population health potential constitutes an essential component of overall human potential. This metric characterizes the viability of society as a social organism and its capacity for sustained harmonious growth and socioeconomic development. The relevance of this study stems from the high significance of a population’s health status and the lack of scientifically grounded methods for quantifying population health potential over time. Consequently, there is a clear need to develop assessment methods with improved accuracy, statistical reliability, and practical applicability in epidemiological and social research. Objective. To develop a methodology for population health assessment by analyzing key demographic indicators over time and to identify the major trends affecting population health potential. Methods. A descriptive and analytical retrospective study of public health indicators was conducted for 1990–2021 based on official statistical data from the Federal Service for State Statistics (Rosstat) and the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Russian Federation. The primary indicators evaluated included the crude birth rate, life expectancy, crude death rate, and disability incidence rate. The study analyzed time-series of demographic indicators and population health potential. A new method was developed for assessing population health potential over time. Mathematical analysis utilized a novel formula combined with statistical methods and comparative analysis. Statistical processing was performed using Microsoft Office Excel 2021 (Microsoft, USA), while correlation and regression analyses were conducted using IBM SPSS Statistics (IBM, USA). Results. A 1990–2021 trend analysis of population health potential revealed a positive trajectory. This metric peaked in 2010 (+0.91), while its lowest value (−1.48) was recorded in 1995. This trend was driven by concurrent demographic shifts, including an increase in the crude birth rate, longer life expectancy, and a decline in the crude death rate. Index validation yielded a Spearman’s correlation coefficient of 0.72 ( p < 0.01) between the population health potential and Budilova’s population health index for 2005–2016, indicating acceptable convergent validity. A weight sensitivity analysis confirmed the stability of both the sign and the temporal trends of population health potential. Conclusion. The composite population health index serves as an analytical tool for monitoring population health status, analyzing trends, and assessing the contribution of individual components to the overall health level. Through a single numeric value, this index characterizes the trends of four core indicators and enables the comparison of demographic and socioeconomic groups on a unified scale.