A system dynamics approach to energy, green spaces, and sustainability in cities

This study applies a system dynamics modelling framework to assess long-term sustainability strategies for urban environments across four policy scenarios, focusing on energy production, land use, and consumption behaviour. Scenario 1 simulates the expansion of solar infrastructure to meet rising energy demands, resulting in significant carbon dioxide emission reductions and improved quality-of-life indicators – consistent with prior research on renewable energy benefits. Scenario 2 evaluates regulatory interventions aimed at conserving green spaces and controlling construction activities. The outcomes include increased vegetation cover and a notable decline in urban pollution, supporting evidence from urban ecological planning studies. Scenario 3 integrates the first two strategies, yielding optimal results in reducing emissions and enhancing livability; however, these improvements also attract higher population inflows, increasing energy demand. To address this challenge, Scenario 4 introduces a targeted energy efficiency strategy, incorporating per-capita consumption controls through technological advancements and behavioural change mechanisms. This scenario achieves a 35% reduction in total energy use and a 25% decline in carbon dioxide emissions. The findings highlight the synergistic potential of combined policy approaches and underscore the importance of managing rebound effects associated with urban quality improvements.