Industrial Solid Wastes Recycling from Steel and Power Sectors Delivers Climate and Net Societal Benefits

Abstract Sectoral decarbonization can substantially reshape the quantity and composition of industrial solid waste and its associated resource recovery potential, yet how these changes evolve along decarbonization pathways remains poorly understood. Here, we develop a sectoral transition framework linking future waste generation, recycling technologies, life cycle environmental impacts, and societal benefits. We focus on the steel and power sectors, which represent major industrial solid waste sources and distinct decarbonization pathways across six major producing regions from 2025 to 2050. By 2050, steel sector wastes remain at 0.61–0.78 Gt, whereas power sector wastes decline from 1.11 Gt in 2025 to 0.17–0.50 Gt. Under four scenarios, cumulative mitigation ranges from 25.68 to 53.39 Gt CO2-eq, with discounted net societal benefits of USD 11.24–23.81 trillion. Steel sector benefits are sensitive to recycling technology shares, whereas power sector benefits are more strongly shaped by transition-driven changes in the waste generation and composition. These findings highlight the importance of integrating evolving waste flows and technology choices into long-term decarbonization and circular economy strategies.