LAB #4770 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = ACCUMULATION — improves win rate from 31.8% to 44.2% ( — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = ACCUMULATION — improves win rate from 31.8% to 44.2% (+12.4pp, n=138) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: The filter would have blocked entries outside ACCUMULATION phase, but the current window is dominated by SHORTs across majors (EURUSD, XAUUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD, EURJPY, USDCAD) — a directional cluster, not a phase signal. Of the 10 live trades shown, only USDCHF LONG (WIN) and USDCAD SHORT (WIN) are confirmed closed; the two losses (XAUUSD, AUDUSD) and the one open (EURUSD) would need phase tagging to know if they'd survive the filter. Net effect on this window is likely small and ambiguous — the filter's +12.4pp claim rests on n=138, but this window is n≈10 with heavy rejection/overlap, so it cannot validate or refute the claim. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: If the +12.4pp edge is real and stable, it lifts win rate from ~32% to ~44%, which on a 1:1-ish R structure could flip expectancy positive Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com