Geo‐Economic Realism and the Return of Mercantilist Orientation: Gold Accumulation in a Fractured World

ABSTRACT This paper develops a theoretical framework for understanding the structural resurgence of central bank gold accumulation within the context of geo‐economic fragmentation. The paper conceptualizes gold accumulation as the expression of a mercantilist orientation—a latent strategic disposition, grounded in bounded rationality and institutional routines. This orientation is analytically embedded within a geo‐economic realist framework that treats reserve composition as an instrument of strategic statecraft. The framework introduces reserve sovereignty—the capacity to manage reserves without external interference—as a novel analytical outcome. Seven testable propositions are advanced, structured around antecedents, mediators, moderators, and outcomes.