Active Prevention Theory: A Conceptual Framework for Intervening Before the Point of No Return

AbstractThis paper proposes Active Prevention Theory (APT), a conceptual framework for identifying and correcting danger-producing central beliefs before they contribute to escalating risks and before opportunities for effective intervention significantly diminish.APT examines how beliefs, assumptions, incentives, institutional practices, and decision-making norms can contribute to the production and normalization of danger. It introduces four proposed concepts: the Safe Intervention Region, the Point of No Return, Risk Capital, and Safety Capital.Potential applications include transportation safety, organizational risk management, environmental governance, education, and social and political systems. The paper presents six testable propositions, a preliminary research design, ethical safeguards, limitations, and a research agenda.This is a conceptual working paper. The framework has not yet undergone peer review or empirical validation.