Contextual gating modifies climate-conditioned dengue transmission potential across India

Abstract Climatic conditions shape dengue transmission potential, but ecological occurrence and settlement characteristics may alter its geographical expression. Here, we use CliMed, a daily mechanistic framework driven by median climate forcing from three CMIP6 models, to investigate dengue transmission potential across India under historical (2005–2014) and near-term (2026–2035) conditions across three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Spatially averaged entomological inoculation rate (EIR) increased by 13.8–17.8% across scenarios, while high-transmission hotspots remained geographically consistent with historical conditions (Jaccard similarity: 0.885–0.897). Under identical SSP2-4.5 forcing, full contextual gating reduced mean EIR by 83.4% and substantially reorganised hotspot geography (Jaccard similarity: 0.301). Persistent hotspots exhibited comparable geographical reclassification (Jaccard similarity: 0.272), despite largely conserved seasonal timing. These findings distinguish climatic intensification from context-dependent geographical prioritisation and temporal persistence, providing a mechanistic basis for understanding the spatial and temporal organisation of climate-sensitive dengue transmission potential.