Landscape connectivity and climatic drivers shaping Noctuidae communities in a Brazilian seasonally dryland fruit-producing region

Abstract Drylands are highly sensitive to climatic shifts, affecting insect population dynamics and multi-trophic interactions. This study evaluated Noctuidae diversity and temporal distribution in the São Francisco Valley, a semi-arid, irrigated, fruit-producing region in Northeast Brazil, in relation to local environmental factors. We conducted monitoring over two consecutive years using Pennsylvania light traps deployed across two agricultural landscapes integrated with native Caatinga dry forest: an experimental multi-crop station and a commercial table grape farm. We captured 12,407 Noctuidae moths; raw richness favored the grapevine site, but diversity did not differ, and per-individual richness favored the multi-crop site once sampling effort was considered . Four Noctuinae species dominated the assemblage (94.04% of total captures): Spodoptera frugiperda (Smith) (39.53%), Elaphria agrotina (Guenée) (36.89%), Spodoptera cosmioides (Walker) (9.21%), and Spodoptera albula (Walker) (8.40%). Immediate captures of S. frugiperda and S. albula rose with lower wind speed and higher precipitation; previous-month captures showed the same patterns for S. frugiperda and S. albula , but E. agrotina responded to temperature and S. cosmioides to site and precipitation instead. Circular statistics indicated a stark temporal segregation between S. frugiperda and S. cosmioides . These findings suggest Caatinga connectivity elevates vineyard abundance, whereas the multi-crop mosaic’s heterogeneity yields higher per-individual richness . Specialized crop management practices, such as continuous vineyard pruning, generate stable niches that favor detritivorous species like E. agrotina . Local multi-year calibrations are essential for accurate pest forecasting and integrated management across agricultural-forest interfaces in semi-arid zones.