When does decarbonization pay? Mapping elasticity and climate information capabilities in the corporate transition

The conditions under which corporate decarbonization is associated with financial performance were examined using emissions outcomes and climate-information capabilities. A two-period panel of 300 firms was used to calculate Decarbonization–ROIC Elasticity and classify Win–Win, Brown Win, Green Penalty, and Lose–Lose outcomes. Average elasticity was close to zero (≈0.04); 20% of firms achieved Win–Win outcomes, whereas 34% were classified as Brown Win and 28% as Lose–Lose. Company-level distributions were visualized, and annualized reduction pace was examined among 114 emissions-reducing firms. No statistically detectable association with annualized ROIC change was identified (ρ = 0.030, p = 0.748). Survey responses from 470 informants were analyzed using PLS-SEM across five broad sector categories. Emissions data-sharing maturity, target ambition, and disclosure quality were positively associated with performance (β = 0.135, 0.193, and 0.101, respectively), with pathways through collaboration and data quality and assurance and moderation by management support. Implementation implications were developed through a staged roadmap addressing integration, assurance, coordination costs, and organizational barriers, with responsibilities and progress indicators specified for executives and regulators. Financial benefits were interpreted as contingent on complementary capabilities; optimal reduction pace and investment payback were not established, and survey non-response bias could not be verified.