Mobile-First, Fixed-Last: Trends and Structural Breaks in Broadband Adoption in Somalia, 2012–2024

Abstract Somalia’s telecommunications sector grew for two decades with little state regulation, and it is often described as mobile-led. Few studies have measured how far broadband adoption in Somalia has diverged between mobile and fixed networks, or whether the published indicators can support such claims. This study describes the trajectories of mobile and fixed broadband adoption in Somalia between 2011 and 2024, tests them for trends and structural breaks, and examines coverage and affordability as explanations for the gap. We built an annual country-level panel from the OIC Statistics (OICStat) database, which republishes International Telecommunication Union (ITU) and United Nations indicators, and from World Bank population estimates. Mobile broadband subscriptions were converted to a per-100-inhabitant rate so that they could be compared with fixed broadband. We used compound annual growth rates, Mann–Kendall tests with Sen’s slope, the Pettitt change-point test, segmented (hinge) regression for fixed broadband, and an interrupted time-series model for mobile broadband. Both series rose significantly (Mann–Kendall τ = 0.82, p < 0.001 for each), but at very different speeds. Mobile broadband rose from 0.86 to 40.1 subscriptions per 100 inhabitants between 2013 and 2024. Fixed broadband rose from 0.32 to 0.72 per 100 between 2012 and 2023. Fixed broadband growth slowed after 2015, from 0.091 to 0.012 subscriptions per 100 per year. At that pace, adding one more subscription per 100 people would take more than 80 years. The ratio of mobile to fixed subscriptions rose from 1.8 in 2013 to 18.7 in 2023, and mobile accounted for 95% of all broadband subscriptions by 2023. Fixed broadband cost between 39% and 80% of monthly GNI per capita in 2021–2025. That is 19 to 40 times the Broadband Commission’s 2% affordability target. The mobile series shows a sharp level shift in 2022 (a factor of 3.6, p = 0.012), which follows three years of identical carried-forward values. We argue this shift reflects both real 4G expansion and a revision in how subscriptions were reported. This is, to our knowledge, the first time-series analysis of the mobile–fixed broadband divide in Somalia. It shows that the country’s broadband market has settled into a mobile-only path, with fixed broadband stalled by cost and missing infrastructure. It also shows that official indicators for fragile states need to be checked for carried-forward values and revisions before they are used to judge policy.