China’s Nationwide CO 2 Emissions Trading System: A General Equilibrium Assessment

China’s CO 2 emissions trading system, the world’s largest, aims to significantly reduce CO 2 emissions. The system is a tradable performance standard (TPS), differing from cap and trade (C&T). We provide a dynamic general equilibrium assessment that uniquely considers institutional and fiscal features of China that affect policy costs and distributional impacts. Key findings: The TPS’s environmental benefits exceed its costs by a factor of five or more. Interactions with the fiscal system reduce or eliminate the TPS’s cost disadvantage relative to C&T. Introducing auctioning as a complementary source of allowance supply can reduce costs by 30 percent. (JEL D58, O13, P28, Q54, Q58)

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Publication Details

Journal
American Economic Journal Economic Policy
Published
2026-10-29
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20240652
Primary Topic
Climate Change Policy and Economics
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00
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article

China’s Nationwide CO 2 Emissions Trading System: A General Equilibrium Assessment

Chenfei Qu, Lawrence H. Goulder, Xianling Long, Da Zhang
American Economic Journal Economic Policy
Climate Change Policy and Economics
article

China’s Nationwide CO 2 Emissions Trading System: A General Equilibrium Assessment

Chenfei Qu, Lawrence H. Goulder, Xianling Long, Da Zhang
article en

Abstract

China’s CO 2 emissions trading system, the world’s largest, aims to significantly reduce CO 2 emissions. The system is a tradable performance standard (TPS), differing from cap and trade (C&T). We provide a dynamic general equilibrium assessment that uniquely considers institutional and fiscal features of China that affect policy costs and distributional impacts. Key findings: The TPS’s environmental benefits exceed its costs by a factor of five or more. Interactions with the fiscal system reduce or eliminate the TPS’s cost disadvantage relative to C&T. Introducing auctioning as a complementary source of allowance supply can reduce costs by 30 percent. (JEL D58, O13, P28, Q54, Q58)

American Economic Journal Economic PolicyVol. 18(4)
National Bureau of Economic Research (US), Peking University (CN), Resources For The Future (US), Stanford University (US), Tsinghua University (CN)
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 9%
Climate Change Policy and Economics
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