Floodplain ecosystems' resilience to extreme seasonal floods: Predisposition of Upper Guinea floodplains, republic of Guinea

Floodplains are of great ecological and agricultural importance worldwide. However, the increase in extreme weather events, including severe floods and prolonged droughts, raises concerns about the sustainability of their ecosystems and farming practices as primary sources of income for developing countries. The Upper Guinea Savanna (UGS) features extensive floodplains that are vital to local food security but are increasingly subject to extreme seasonal flooding and human disturbances. Although future climate projections estimate that UGS could experience heavy rainfall, there is no clear evidence of its ability to cope with such disturbances, including factors underlying its resilience. Based on key resilience indicators, we developed an Ecological Flood Resilience Index (EFRI) to estimate the resilience of UGS agricultural floodplain ecosystems to extreme seasonal flooding in nine agroecological zones. Furthermore, Explanatory Factor Analysis (EFA) was performed to identify the underlying factors of floodplain ecosystems' resilience to extreme flooding. The EFRI found that floodplain resilience was spatially heterogeneous, with scores ranging from very low (0.118) to high (0.443). Kolokalan High Valley Floodplains (0.118) were found to have very low resilience, while those of Woulada Plateau (0.443) and Dion-Niandan Inter-River (0.414) were found to be very resilient. EFA uncovered that (i) ecosystem landscape connectivity (0.807), (ii) species and habitat diversity (0.768), and (iii) wetlands diversity and protection (0.700) were estimated as key factors shaping resilience. Within the resilience context, the results contribute to the planning and management of floodplain ecosystems to maintain agricultural productivity under climate stress and to guide the assessment of similar ecosystems.