Unintended, not unanticipated: understanding system-wide impacts of shifting policies for international students in Ontario

A growing body of scholarship in higher education examines how immigration policies affect international student mobility and student experiences. Yet less work has examined the system-wide impacts of shifting policies. Focusing on Ontario, Canada, this article examines the impacts of sweeping federal policy changes affecting international students that began in 2024 on the province’s colleges, universities, and students. We identify the major consequences as: the financial destabilization and programme cuts; the collapse of public college–private partnerships; disruptions to students’ educational and life plans; and national reputational decline. Theoretically, we introduce de Zwart’s distinction between intended/unintended and anticipated/unanticipated consequences as an analytical lens for classifying outcomes at the immigration-education policy nexus. Although many system-wide disruptions were foreseeable given the system’s structural revenue dependence, we argue that some were likely unexpected and unintended. Ultimately, we seek to document and theorize the impacts of changing immigration policies on higher education.