Analysis of power transition scenarios in the Western Balkans: Evaluating air quality and health impacts

Most Western Balkans (WB) economies heavily rely on lignite for electricity production, contributing to some of Europe’s most severe air pollution levels. Consequently, electricity costs are likely to rise as carbon pricing becomes operational, with the potential additional risk of interfering in the European Union (EU) accession process if national emission ceilings are not met. National strategies remain fragmented from the regional integrated WB electricity market, highlighting the urgent need for coherent, evidence-based transition roadmaps. To bridge this gap, we benchmarked the Joint Research Centre (JRC) integrated WB Electricity Market Model (EMM) against each economy National Energy and Climate Action Plans (NECP), highlighting synergies and divergences to guide forthcoming national strategies revisions. Then these scenarios are analysed with the JRC Fast Scenario Screening Tool (JRC-FASST), to estimate air quality and health impacts under two distinct electricity pathways from 2015 to 2040. The magnitude of benefits varies across scenarios, each of which is designed to meet specific objectives. From an economic perspective, the cost-optimisation scenario (EMM 2024) could prevent over 5340 premature deaths by 2030, compared with the previous forecast (EMM 2022). From a policy perspective, full implementation of NECP-BAT power sector measures would avoid more than 5330 yearly premature deaths in 2030 relative to a scenario that delays by five years the decommissioning of coal power plants. The emission control techniques envisaged in the same scenario would halve air pollution-related mortality in 2030 compared to business as usual (NECP-EXT).