Scenario-based estimation of economic losses associated with bovine viral diarrhea virus infection in Hanwoo and dairy cattle in Korea

Bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) can cause substantial losses in cattle production through reproductive failure, calf mortality, reduced productivity, premature culling, and additional disease-management expenditures. This study estimated the annual farm-level economic losses associated with BVDV-related production impacts under illustrative Hanwoo (Korean native beef cattle) and dairy farm scenarios in the Republic of Korea while explicitly accounting for uncertainty in key epidemiological and production-loss parameters. A probabilistic partial-budget model combined literature-derived epidemiological and production-impact parameters with Korean livestock-industry data. To reduce double counting, each loss component was applied to an event-specific population at risk. Triangular or lognormal probability distributions were assigned to uncertain inputs, and 10,000 Monte Carlo iterations were performed for each production system. Outcomes were summarized using the mean and 90% uncertainty interval (UI; P05–P95), and Spearman rank correlation coefficients were used for sensitivity analysis. For a 50-head Hanwoo farm, the mean annual scenario-based loss was estimated at KRW 12.906 million (90% UI: KRW 8.782–18.056 million), equivalent to KRW 258,113 per head (90% UI: KRW 175,646–361,121). For a 100-head dairy farm, the corresponding estimates were KRW 11.102 million per year (90% UI: KRW 7.126–16.211 million) and KRW 111,023 per head (90% UI: KRW 71,261–162,119). Sensitivity analysis showed that calf value, abortion, and calf mortality were among the model inputs most strongly associated with simulated total losses in both systems, and these factors were also among the largest contributors to economic loss. These estimates represent modeled scenarios based on literature-informed assumptions, providing a quantitative baseline rather than direct causal measurements. The model provides a quantitative baseline for future evaluation of BVDV surveillance, early detection and removal of persistently infected cattle, vaccination, biosecurity, and movement-control strategies in Korea.