Forecasting incidence levels and justifying preventive measures for syphilis and gonococcal infection in the Tomsk Region: A retrospective analysis

Background. The past two decades have seen a sharp escalation in syphilis incidence rates worldwide, including in developed countries. Gestational and congenital syphilis are emerging as increasingly critical public health concerns, with documented surges of the latter in Brazil, China, and Mexico. Concurrently, gonorrhea has an estimated global annual incidence of 86.9 million cases. Despite advancements in prevention and treatment, gonococcal infection remains a significant public health challenge in developed countries due to rising antimicrobial resistance. Nevertheless, most regions across the Russian Federation have observed a decline in both syphilis and gonorrhea incidence over the last five years, a trend attributed to active detection and preventive measures. A retrospective analysis and incidence forecasting for syphilis and gonorrhea enable the development of strategies to control the spread of these infections. Objective: To analyze the incidence rates of syphilis and gonococcal infection in the Tomsk Region between 2014 and 2025 and justify preventive measures. Methods. The study sample was selected from the target population via continuous sampling according to the following inclusion criterion: a confirmed diagnosis of either syphilis or gonorrhea. Data examined for the 2014–2025 period included the number of cases and incidence rates. Statistical processing of the analyzed variables used descriptive statistics, calculation of means, and time-series analysis. Incidence levels were forecasted through 2031. The findings were compared with relevant regional data for the Tomsk Region and the Siberian Federal District. Results. Over the analyzed period, the Tomsk Region saw a 1.3-fold decrease in syphilis incidence and a 7.1-fold decline in gonorrhea rates. However, projected data indicate a potential resurgence of syphilis by 2030: to 51.7 cases among men and to 55.3 cases among women per 100,000 population. Conversely, projected gonorrhea rates for 2030 do not warrant immediate concern, with forecasted incidence levels approaching 1.45 per 100,000 for men and zero for women. Conclusion. In order to prevent syphilis transmission across the Tomsk Region, preventive and containment measures are warranted. These measures focus on implementing information technologies, intensifying prevention efforts within high-burden municipalities and specific social groups, and enhancing clinical vigilance among dermatologists.