Local Refugee Inflows Reduced Welfare Chauvinism Only Among the Economically Vulnerable: Evidence from German Panel Data (2015–2017)

The arrival of hundreds of thousands of refugees in Germany between 2015 and 2017 reignited debates on the ‘new liberal dilemma’, raising concerns that ethnic diversity might undermine support for an inclusive welfare state. This article tests whether local exposure to refugee inflows increased welfare chauvinism (opposition to granting non-natives access to social benefits), and explores effect heterogeneity in conditions conducive to intergroup threat and contact. The study uses the individual-level Attitudes and Reported Experiences of the German Welfare State panel dataset (Waves 2015, 2016, 2017, N ≈ 2,000 per wave) and exploits the administratively mandated allocation of refugees to counties (Kreise) to estimate causal effects in fixed-effects regressions. The analysis finds no significant average effect of county-level refugee inflows on welfare chauvinism. Contrary to economic threat expectations, economically vulnerable residents, i.e. those theoretically most likely to perceive competition, were the only individual-level group whose welfare chauvinism declined where inflows were larger. Neither political orientation nor conditions conducive to contact moderate the effect. These results are robust to alternative measures and specifications. The results suggest that the aggregate rise in welfare chauvinism in Germany from 2015 to 2017 was driven by factors other than a backlash caused by county-level refugee immigration.