Pengaruh Inflasi, Pertumbuhan Upah Minimum, dan Pertumbuhan Penduduk terhadap Pengangguran Terbuka di Provinsi Sumatera Utara

Open unemployment (TPT) in North Sumatra has declined since 2005, yet most workers remain in the informal sector, so it is unclear which macroeconomic and demographic factors still shape it. This study analyzes the effects of inflation, minimum wage growth, and population growth on TPT in North Sumatra Province during 2005–2024. Annual secondary data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) were analyzed using multiple linear regression with a first-order autoregressive error structure, AR(1), estimated by maximum likelihood on 19 effective observations. The minimum wage and population enter as first differences of natural logarithms to remove trend-induced multicollinearity. Inflation (p = 0.712) and minimum wage growth (p = 0.935) have no significant partial effect on TPT. Population growth has a positive coefficient that is significant only at the 10% level (p = 0.059). The regressors are jointly significant (F = 15.395; p < 0.001), and the model yields an R² of 0.856, although the high autoregressive coefficient (0.967) indicates strong persistence in unemployment. These findings suggest that employment policy in the province should concentrate on absorbing labor supply growth through job creation and vocational skills.