Regional Poverty Within a National Welfare State: Evidence From Seoul and Busan

ABSTRACT Regional poverty can vary substantially even within a common national welfare state, yet the mechanisms underlying such variation remain underexplored. Using Seoul and Busan Welfare Condition Surveys, this study compares poverty in Seoul and Busan in 2018–2022. Poverty is assessed using national and city‐specific thresholds and both contemporaneous relative and CPI‐anchored thresholds. The analysis examines the prevalence and poverty risks of vulnerable groups and uses Shapley decomposition to estimate the poverty‐reducing contributions of earned income, property income, private transfers, and public transfers. Poverty was generally higher in Busan, particularly among older adults, female householders, and single‐person households, although the magnitude of regional differences varied with the poverty threshold used. Differences in vulnerable‐group prevalence were relatively modest, whereas their poverty risks were substantially higher in Busan. Earned income made the largest contribution to poverty reduction in both cities, but its contribution weakened significantly in Seoul between 2018 and 2022, while the poverty‐reducing contribution of public transfers weakened in Busan. These findings demonstrate that regional poverty differences within a common national welfare state reflect not only population composition but also regional variation in poverty risks and income‐based poverty‐reducing mechanisms.