Assessing Ecological Spatial Resilience Using the Pressure–State–Response Framework: A Case Study of Shenzhen, China

Integrating adaptive cycle theory with the Pressure–State–Response (PSR) framework, this study proposes a Risk–Connectivity–Potential (RCP) model to assess ecological spatial resilience in Shenzhen from 2000 to 2025—an area that underwent exceptionally rapid transformation into a megacity, a distinctive feature of this study. The results reveal a nonlinear trajectory of “decline–partial recovery–renewed decline–low-level endpoint”, with the mean RCPi decreasing by 91.7%. Spatially, pressure risk expanded from built-up cores to urban fringes, connectivity shifted from peripheral patches to central hubs, and restoration potential declined at urban–ecological interfaces while improving locally. The overall decrease in resilience appears to be more closely linked to deteriorating connectivity and restoration capacity than to rising pressure risk alone. The coordination analysis further indicates a progressive worsening of ecosystem functional harmony over time. A differentiated management strategy is subsequently developed based on temporal trend, fluctuation, and component-specific diagnostic patterns. The theoretical contribution lies in establishing an explicit operational correspondence between the PSR framework and the RCP model, linking resilience theory with spatially measurable indicators. The practical contribution is a spatially differentiated assessment framework that identifies where resilience declined and whether the observed pattern was associated with pressure, connectivity, restoration potential, or imbalance among these dimensions.