Navigating Blue Risk: Divergent Pathways in Tasmanian Aquaculture

The blue economy is commonly framed as a pathway to sustainability, promising the reconciliation of economic growth with environmental protection and social equity. In practice, however, industries seeking to operate blue face significant challenges translating high-level principles into practice. The study examines how the Tasmanian aquaculture sector (i.e., salmon, oyster, and seaweed industries) operationalise blue economy principles on the ground, and where gaps and burdens emerge. Survey data were drawn from the CSIRO Tasmanian Coastal Waters and Seas Survey 2025, a statewide stakeholder survey (n = 931). Results suggest widespread stakeholder concern in relation to environmental decline, strong expectations for transparency and accountability, and low perceived public influence over marine decision-making. While these conditions appear to have intensified social risk, the response by industry has been varied and includes enhanced environmental monitoring, regulatory compliance beyond minimum requirements, third-party certification, community engagement, and investment in mitigation and adaptation measures. However, stakeholder perceptions of the effectiveness and legitimacy of these actions vary markedly. Salmon aquaculture remains highly contested, with polarised views reflecting tensions around environmental performance and governance, while oyster and seaweed farming sit in lower conflict but more uncertain spaces. The findings suggest that navigating social risk in the blue economy requires industry-specific strategies that extend beyond formal policy alignment and regulatory compliance to provide the nuance and innovation needed to address cumulative impacts, accountability, and community expectations.