The Stellar Death Clock II: From the Closing Biotic Window Problem to an Engineering Plan

The brightening of the Sun imposes a deterministic deadline on Earth’s biosphere: a literature spanning three decadesbrackets the collapse of the plant biosphere between ∼0.5 and ∼1.9 Gyr (Franck et al., 2000; Graham et al., 2024; HaqqMisra and Wolf, 2026), with the oxygen clock of Ozaki and Reinhard (2021) (1.08±0.14 Gyr) potentially the earliestof the well-quantified clocks. This is the closing biotic window problem, and its correct treatment is worst-case planning:the deadline must be assumed at the short end of the bracket, because the penalty asymmetry between early and lateengineering is total. Comparing the three response families — interstellar exodus, Mars terraforming, and orbitalcomigration — on energy per unit of preserved biomass selects comigration as the only non-dominated strategyon this ledger. An engineering plan is then presented: the first installment of an asteroid-assisted maintenancemigration (1.0 →∼1.053 au), executed by a single recycled ∼145-km main-belt object cycling in a resonant corridoranchored at Q ≈ 11.2 au with a perihelion slightly interior to Earth’s orbit (nominal period 15 yr, stepped down byeach Earth encounter and restored by periodic Jovian refuelling), each oblique crossing encounter transferring aladder-defined orbital-energy increment to the Earth–Moon system, with a mean crossing-radius displacement of∼1.8 km reported as a phase-dependent diagnostic. The execution is partitioned into ∼32 campaigns of ∼2 Myrof encounters separated by 1-Myr fallow periods for secular stabilization and state re-acquisition, keeping everycampaign inside the ∼5 Myr Lyapunov time of the chaotic inner Solar System. The plan is specified in closed analyticform: N ≈ 4.2×106 encounters, a nominal ∼96-Myr execution schedule of the planning model, a ∼5-fold nominalmargin against the worst-case deadline (∼11-fold against the oxygen clock; the double-pessimistic delivery cornerstill completes inside both under the same model), and a civilization-paid program energy budget ten orders ofmagnitude below the exodus vector per unit of preserved biomass. The plan is stated independently of any particularimplementation; its numerical validation is deliberately left pending for future work of the series. The closing bioticwindow problem is thus not only qualitatively motivated but quantitatively specified — and it should be posed now— while its deadline, and the execution of its remedy, are both still measured in hundreds of millions of years.

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Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-10-29
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23754074
Primary Topic
Space Science and Extraterrestrial Life
Type
preprint
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preprint

The Stellar Death Clock II: From the Closing Biotic Window Problem to an Engineering Plan

Moisés Frutos Plaza
3 links
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Space Science and Extraterrestrial Life
preprint

The Stellar Death Clock II: From the Closing Biotic Window Problem to an Engineering Plan

Moisés Frutos Plaza
preprint en

Abstract

The brightening of the Sun imposes a deterministic deadline on Earth’s biosphere: a literature spanning three decadesbrackets the collapse of the plant biosphere between ∼0.5 and ∼1.9 Gyr (Franck et al., 2000; Graham et al., 2024; HaqqMisra and Wolf, 2026), with the oxygen clock of Ozaki and Reinhard (2021) (1.08±0.14 Gyr) potentially the earliestof the well-quantified clocks. This is the closing biotic window problem, and its correct treatment is worst-case planning:the deadline must be assumed at the short end of the bracket, because the penalty asymmetry between early and lateengineering is total. Comparing the three response families — interstellar exodus, Mars terraforming, and orbitalcomigration — on energy per unit of preserved biomass selects comigration as the only non-dominated strategyon this ledger. An engineering plan is then presented: the first installment of an asteroid-assisted maintenancemigration (1.0 →∼1.053 au), executed by a single recycled ∼145-km main-belt object cycling in a resonant corridoranchored at Q ≈ 11.2 au with a perihelion slightly interior to Earth’s orbit (nominal period 15 yr, stepped down byeach Earth encounter and restored by periodic Jovian refuelling), each oblique crossing encounter transferring aladder-defined orbital-energy increment to the Earth–Moon system, with a mean crossing-radius displacement of∼1.8 km reported as a phase-dependent diagnostic. The execution is partitioned into ∼32 campaigns of ∼2 Myrof encounters separated by 1-Myr fallow periods for secular stabilization and state re-acquisition, keeping everycampaign inside the ∼5 Myr Lyapunov time of the chaotic inner Solar System. The plan is specified in closed analyticform: N ≈ 4.2×106 encounters, a nominal ∼96-Myr execution schedule of the planning model, a ∼5-fold nominalmargin against the worst-case deadline (∼11-fold against the oxygen clock; the double-pessimistic delivery cornerstill completes inside both under the same model), and a civilization-paid program energy budget ten orders ofmagnitude below the exodus vector per unit of preserved biomass. The plan is stated independently of any particularimplementation; its numerical validation is deliberately left pending for future work of the series. The closing bioticwindow problem is thus not only qualitatively motivated but quantitatively specified — and it should be posed now— while its deadline, and the execution of its remedy, are both still measured in hundreds of millions of years.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Universidad de Murcia (ES)
Space Science and Extraterrestrial Life
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