Future hydrogen demand in Europe’s steel and chemical sectors: A site-specific assessment

Hydrogen is expected to play a central role in decarbonising Europe’s steel and chemical industries, but future demand remains uncertain because technology adoption depends on plant characteristics, infrastructure access, and evolving prices. This study develops an open-source, site-specific assessment of hydrogen demand in Europe’s primary steel sector and selected chemical subsectors: ammonia, methanol, and high-value chemicals. Building on the FORECAST-Sites framework, the model combines plant-level production data, techno-economic process assumptions, and the planned European Hydrogen Backbone to simulate investment, reinvestment, shutdown, and hydrogen-connection decisions at individual sites. Within the hydrogen-centred technology portfolio considered, hydrogen demand remains limited through the 2030s but rises sharply after 2040 as large primary steel assets switch to hydrogen-based direct reduction. In the baseline, total demand increases from 23 TWh/y in 2040 to 315 TWh/y in 2050, with steel accounting for 81% of final demand. Chemical hydrogen use emerges earlier but remains smaller, concentrated mainly in ammonia and methanol, while H 2 -based methanol-to-olefins remains comparatively uncompetitive in high-value chemicals. Demand is also spatially concentrated, with Germany becoming the dominant demand centre. Overall, aggregate hydrogen-demand projections mask substantial sectoral and spatial heterogeneity, with important implications for infrastructure planning and industrial policy.