Probabilistic and Deterministic Assessment of Dietary Iron Intake for Armenian Adult Population Using Individual and Household-Based Approaches

The study aimed to estimate dietary iron intake in Armenia by integrating individual-based probabilistic modelling with household-based deterministic assessment. Iron contents were determined in 146 composite samples prepared following a Total Diet Study framework and analysed with ICP-OES. Individual food consumption data from a national single 24 h dietary recall survey of 1400 adults were combined with determined iron contents, and Monte Carlo simulation characterized the distributions of observed one-day iron intake among men, women aged 18–39 years and women aged ≥40 years. In addition, household food consumption data from the Armenian Integrated Living Conditions Survey (2019–2024) were used for deterministic assessment of population-level trends and major dietary contributions. Mean total dietary iron intake estimated by probabilistic modelling was 10.39, 8.31 and 8.26 mg/day for men, women aged 18–39 years and women aged ≥40 years, respectively. Non-heme iron had the major share in total iron intake across all groups. Mean and median intakes exceeded the EFSA Average Requirement (AR) but remained below the Population Reference Intake (PRI), particularly among women of reproductive age. Deterministic assessment showed that per capita dietary iron intake of the general population varied from 8.07 to 9.27 mg/day during 2019–2024, with flour-based products as the main contributors. Overall, the integrated assessment framework provides a comprehensive characterization of dietary iron intake in Armenia and supports the development of targeted nutrition strategies addressing potentially inadequate dietary iron intake among vulnerable population groups, while biomarker data are required to evaluate iron status.