Statistical Analysis of the Russian Metallurgical Industry Development: Environmental Aspect.

This article presents the key findings of a statistical analysis of the environmentally oriented development of the Russian metallurgical sector in the context of geopolitical transformation and tightening environmental regulation. The article examines the dynamics of economic and environmental indicators in the Russian metallurgical industry for the period 2019–2024 based on official data from the Federal State Statistics Service, consolidated financial statements of metallurgical companies, and industry associations. The analysis covers production output and structure across federal districts, the financial performance of major companies, and changes in the geography of metal product exports. Particular attention is paid to environmental aspects: trends in pollutant emissions, specific environmental impact indicators, and volumes of investment in greening and decarbonization. The study aims to provide a statistical analysis of the current state and greening of Russia’s metallurgical industry, as well as to assess the sector's prospects through 2035. Using simulation modeling, the authors propose three scenarios for the industry's environmentally oriented development – conservative, baseline, and intensive – with a probabilistic assessment of each. It was concluded that environmental modernization has transformed from an external constraint into a strategic driver for the development of the metallurgical sector of the national economy, and maintaining export positions requires a transition to the baseline decarbonization scenario. The results obtained provide an analytical basis for managerial decision-making at both corporate and regulatory levels to the decarbonization of Russian metallurgical industry.