Budget Performance in the Indonesian Public Sector: The Roles of Preparation, Deviation, and Human Resource Competence

Abstract* Background Public-sector budget performance reflects year-end realization and planning–implementation consistency. In Indonesia, mismatches between monthly cash withdrawal plans and actual expenditure are associated with slow, back-loaded spending. This study examined the relationship between preparation and performance, mediation by budget deviation, and whether human resource competence strengthens this relationship. Extending research using administrative scores operationalised DIPA Page III deviation as a perception-based mediator. Methods A quantitative cross-sectional census survey covering all 51 work units of the Indonesian Ministry of Law from May to June 2026 was conducted, with one budget-management official per unit (100% response rate). Respondents assessed conditions from the start of financial year 2026 to questionnaire completion. The instrument was refined through an expert focus group discussion and pilot-tested with 30 respondents from comparable government agencies. Seven-point rating data were analysed using PLS SEM in SmartPLS 4. The directional hypotheses were tested using one-tailed bootstrapping with 5,000 subsamples. Results The measurement model met the specified reliability and validity criteria. Budget preparation was positively associated with budget performance (β = 0.429, p = 0.013) and negatively associated with budget deviation (β = −0.540, p < 0.001). Deviation was negatively associated with performance (β = −0.333, p = 0.029). The significant indirect association through deviation (β = 0.180, p = 0.028) indicated complementary partial mediation. The interaction between budget preparation and HR competence was nonsignificant (β = 0.062, p = 0.232), providing no support for moderation. The model explained 29.1% of variance in budget deviation and 69.2% in budget performance; four of the five hypotheses were supported. Conclusions Credible budget preparation is associated with stronger budget performance both directly and indirectly through lower budget deviation. In this setting, human resource competence did not provide a detectable incremental strengthening effect in this setting. Therefore, DIPA Page III deviation therefore provides a useful managerial signal of planning–execution consistency. These findings should be interpreted within a single-ministry, cross-sectional, perception-based design.