Regions without historical records threatened by tropical cyclones in the future – ICCE 2024

This record contains the slides of the oral presentation given at the 38th International Conference on Coastal Engineering (ICCE 2024), held at the Pontifical Gregorian University, Rome, Italy, on 8–14 September 2024. A poleward displacement of tropical cyclones (TCs) has been observed and is projected under climate change, so coastal areas with little or no historical experience of TCs may face them in the future. The presentation introduces a global, municipal-level assessment of future TC risk for coastal areas. Using synthetic TC tracks from STORM for a historical period (1980–2017) and a high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5, 2015–2050) from four high-resolution climate models, changes in the intensity and frequency of TCs are used to classify coastal municipalities into climatic regions for adaptation: transitional-decrease, unchanged, transitional-increase and neo-climatic regions. The hazard is combined with exposed population and a TC-related adaptive capacity indicator (local experience, insurance penetration and national readiness) to identify risk hotspots and discuss adaptation pathways for each type of region. This work is part of the TRANSCLIMA project (Detection and Global Risk Assessment of Coastal Transitional Climate and Neo-Climate Regions in a Warming World), funded by the European Union's Horizon Europe research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 101111262 (HORIZON-MSCA-2022-PF-01).