Effects of self-regulated learning prompts on statistical problem-solving by goal orientation

Complex statistical problem-solving requires students to plan, monitor, and evaluate their own thinking, yet instructional interventions designed to support this self-regulation often produce inconsistent results. This study examined whether a metacognitive-prompt intervention grounded in self-regulated learning (SRL) theory was associated with university students’ statistical problem-solving ability, and whether this association depended on students’ achievement goal orientation (mastery vs. performance). A quasi-experimental, nonequivalent control-group pretest-posttest design with a 2 × 2 factorial structure (class × orientation) was used with 21 students from two intact classes (experimental n = 10, control n = 11); because class was assigned at the classroom rather than the individual level, the study is best characterized as a small, single-site pilot comparison. Achievement goal orientation was measured with an instrument adapted from a 2 × 2 achievement goal framework, and statistical problem-solving was measured with a 10-item complex multiple-choice test. Two-way ANOVA on normalized gain (N-gain) scores, supported by ANCOVA controlling for pretest, showed no statistically significant main effect of the metacognitive-prompt intervention, F (1,17) = 0.02, p = 0.882, partial η 2 = 0.001, 95% CI [0.00, 0.46]; no significant main effect of achievement goal orientation, F (1,17) = 1.59, p = 0.224, partial η 2 = 0.086, 95% CI [0.00, 0.54]; and no significant interaction between the two, F (1,17) = 0.08, p = 0.779, partial η 2 = 0.005, 95% CI [0.00, 0.47]. A sensitivity analysis showed the design had 80% power to detect only very large effects (partial η 2 ≥ 0.30), and equivalence tests did not support concluding that the true effects were negligible. All four groups achieved a moderate mean N-gain (0.30–0.70). These findings do not support the hypothesized aptitude-treatment interaction; rather than showing that prompting has no effect, this exploratory, underpowered comparison detected no statistically significant differential benefit across goal orientations, and a larger, multi-classroom design is needed for a confirmatory test.