Spatiotemporal dynamics of carbon sequestration services in the middle Yellow River Basin and gradient responses to ecological restoration in mining areas

Mining and ecological restoration frequently overlap in environmentally fragile regions, yet the spatial extent and temporal evolution of restoration-related carbon recovery remain poorly quantified. We developed an integrated indicator framework for the middle Yellow River Basin (MYRB) using multisource data from 2000 to 2025. The framework combined an a net primary productivity (NPP)-adjusted InVEST carbon model, Theil–Sen slope estimation, the Mann–Kendall trend test, Pettitt change-point detection, multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR), and an exponential asymptotic recovery model. The results showed that carbon sequestration service (CS) increased from 101.93 Mg·hm −2 in 2000 to 105.49 Mg·hm −2 in 2025, with a Theil–Sen slope of 0.15 Mg·hm −2 ·yr −1 , while total ecosystem carbon stock rose from approximately 3.27 to 3.33 Pg. A regional transition was detected around 2017, after which the rate of increase was higher. Natural predictors, particularly precipitation, evapotranspiration, and radiation, showed broad-scale associations with CS, whereas nighttime light, population density, and human activity intensity showed more localized associations. The combined coefficient-based contribution of anthropogenic factors increased from 47.07% to 50.29% after 2017. Mean CS within mining areas was 77.29 Mg·hm −2 , approximately 25.45% below the basin-wide multi-year mean CS density. CS increased nonlinearly with distance from mine boundaries. The proposed 95% recovery-distance indicator decreased from 2.58 to 8.49 km during 2000–2011 to 1.25–2.46 km during 2012–2025, indicating a shorter modeled distance to near-background conditions. This framework links long-term carbon dynamics, scale-dependent associations, and a recovery-distance indicator to support regional monitoring priorities and carbon-oriented land-use planning.