Effects of Insecurity on Crop Production in Ifelodun LGA, Kwara State, Nigeria

Rising insecurity in Ifelodun Local Government Area (LGA), Kwara State, Nigeria, has drastically hampered crop output, compelling farmers to desert fields and suffer substantial production shortfalls amid surging banditry and ransom kidnappings. A survey of 50 farmers uncovered average yearly incidents of 2.6, theft damages averaging ₦118,000, and protection expenses of ₦66,000, alongside 16-20% drops in yields for yam (20%), maize (19%), and cassava (16%) relative to pre-2018 levels escalating to 22-28% on farms with frequent incidents. OLS analysis shows each extra incident lowers log(yam yield) by 11% (β = −0.11, p < 0.001), after adjusting for farm size and age; additionally, 30% of farms experienced partial neglect, with average fear ratings of 3.24/5, worsening food deficits by 15-25% across roughly 1,500 households. Employing multi-stage sampling and mixed-methods approaches (surveys and focus groups), the study merges primary findings with ACLED conflict logs and NBS data, pinpointing porous borders and forested hideouts as primary enablers. Results emphasize how insecurity jeopardizes food security, redirects farm resources toward defense, and impedes rural advancement in developing economies. Proposed solutions encompass strengthened security patrols, dispute resolution through ranching zones, input subsidies like insurance and resilient seeds, and expanded instrumental variable analyses to monitor policy outcomes.