The Most Frequent Yet Least Studied Infection of Childhood: The Global Burden of Upper Respiratory Infections at Ages 0–19 Years, 1990–2023

Background: Upper respiratory infections (URIs) are the most frequent illnesses of childhood, yet mortality-anchored child-health monitoring excludes high-frequency, low-fatality conditions. No dedicated pediatric assessment of the global URI burden exists for the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2023. We quantified URI incidence and mortality at ages 0–19 years, 1990–2023. Methods: We extracted deaths and incident episodes for the GBD cause “upper respiratory infections” from the GBD 2023 Results Tool for the under-5 aggregate plus the 5–9-, 10–14-, and 15–19-year bands, 21 regions, and five Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles, 1990–2023. Crude rates used back-calculated populations; trends used estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). URI was positioned against diarrhoeal diseases, asthma, lower respiratory infections (LRI), and tuberculosis. Results: In 2023, URIs caused 5.616 billion incident episodes (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 4.133–7.330 billion) at ages 0–19 years—210,275 per 100,000, about 2.1 episodes per child per year—against 16,382 deaths (1,781–57,834), a case-fatality proxy of 0.00029%. URIs outnumbered LRI episodes 69.3-fold, while LRI deaths exceeded URI deaths 43.4-fold. Since 1990, incident episodes rose 9.8% in number while the rate declined only 7.3% (EAPC −0.27% per year, one-eleventh of the LRI pace); deaths fell 39.6% (rate EAPC −1.90%). Under-5 children accounted for 34.5% of episodes (three per child per year) and 85.7% of deaths. Incidence rates were nearly flat across SDI quintiles (183,913–255,578 per 100,000), whereas mortality fell 66-fold from low to high SDI (1.724 vs 0.026 per 100,000); the low-SDI quintile carried 89.2% of deaths. Conclusions: The world’s most common pediatric infection is also its least monitored: incidence has stalled for three decades, while a small but real mortality toll concentrates in under-5 children in low-SDI settings. URI merits inclusion in child-health monitoring as a morbidity and antibiotic-stewardship indicator and improved cause-of-death certification where fatal respiratory illness is coded to the upper airway.

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Publication Details

Journal
Preprints.org
Published
2026-10-28
DOI
https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202610.2866.v1
Primary Topic
Pediatric health and respiratory diseases
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preprint
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The Most Frequent Yet Least Studied Infection of Childhood: The Global Burden of Upper Respiratory Infections at Ages 0–19 Years, 1990–2023

Chen Shen, Deze Li, Hao Chen
Preprints.org
Pediatric health and respiratory diseases
preprint

The Most Frequent Yet Least Studied Infection of Childhood: The Global Burden of Upper Respiratory Infections at Ages 0–19 Years, 1990–2023

Chen Shen, Deze Li, Hao Chen
preprint en

Abstract

Background: Upper respiratory infections (URIs) are the most frequent illnesses of childhood, yet mortality-anchored child-health monitoring excludes high-frequency, low-fatality conditions. No dedicated pediatric assessment of the global URI burden exists for the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2023. We quantified URI incidence and mortality at ages 0–19 years, 1990–2023. Methods: We extracted deaths and incident episodes for the GBD cause “upper respiratory infections” from the GBD 2023 Results Tool for the under-5 aggregate plus the 5–9-, 10–14-, and 15–19-year bands, 21 regions, and five Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles, 1990–2023. Crude rates used back-calculated populations; trends used estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). URI was positioned against diarrhoeal diseases, asthma, lower respiratory infections (LRI), and tuberculosis. Results: In 2023, URIs caused 5.616 billion incident episodes (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 4.133–7.330 billion) at ages 0–19 years—210,275 per 100,000, about 2.1 episodes per child per year—against 16,382 deaths (1,781–57,834), a case-fatality proxy of 0.00029%. URIs outnumbered LRI episodes 69.3-fold, while LRI deaths exceeded URI deaths 43.4-fold. Since 1990, incident episodes rose 9.8% in number while the rate declined only 7.3% (EAPC −0.27% per year, one-eleventh of the LRI pace); deaths fell 39.6% (rate EAPC −1.90%). Under-5 children accounted for 34.5% of episodes (three per child per year) and 85.7% of deaths. Incidence rates were nearly flat across SDI quintiles (183,913–255,578 per 100,000), whereas mortality fell 66-fold from low to high SDI (1.724 vs 0.026 per 100,000); the low-SDI quintile carried 89.2% of deaths. Conclusions: The world’s most common pediatric infection is also its least monitored: incidence has stalled for three decades, while a small but real mortality toll concentrates in under-5 children in low-SDI settings. URI merits inclusion in child-health monitoring as a morbidity and antibiotic-stewardship indicator and improved cause-of-death certification where fatal respiratory illness is coded to the upper airway.

Preprints.org
Pediatric health and respiratory diseases
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The Most Frequent Yet Least Studied Infection of Childhood: The Global Burden of Upper Respiratory Infections at Ages 0–19 Years, 1990–2023 — Chen Shen, Deze Li, et al. · Preprints.org (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS