Statistical Analysis of the Relationship Between Economic and Demographic Indicators in the Region (Using the Example of the Lipetsk Region)

The relevance of the research is determined by the inclusion of issues of population conservation and sustainable economic growth among the national development goals of the Russian Federation. The purpose of the work is to verify the relationship between economic and demographic processes using the example of the Lipetsk region in 2011–2025. The scientific novelty consists in the first comprehensive analysis of these processes for the region over a fifteen-year period using the conversion of nominal incomes into comparable base year prices, which made it possible to identify the delayed effect of economic shocks on reproductive behavior. It was found that with an increase in real wages of 67.7 %, the total fertility rate decreased from 1,663 (2015) to 1,170 (2025), which confirms the long-term impact of the crisis of 2014-2015 and 2022–2023. An inverse relationship was found between mortality and unemployment in 2020-2021; the number of the working-age population decreased from 703.5 to 638.5 thousand people. The practical significance of the work lies in substantiating specific recommendations for regional socio-economic policy. First, it has been proven that it is necessary to take into account time lags of at least 5–7 years when assessing the demographic consequences of economic decisions: income support measures taken today will manifest themselves in fertility rates only in the medium term. Secondly, the ineffectiveness of short-term incentives has been revealed in conditions of already formed reproductive depression, which justifies the priority of preventive mechanisms to protect family incomes in times of crisis. Thirdly, the recorded decline in the working-age population and the growing demographic burden require adjustments to regional employment programs and migration policies with a planning horizon of at least 10–15 years. The results obtained are applicable in the formation of strategies for the socio-economic development of the subjects of the Central Federal District.