Analysis of land use change and multi-scenario projections for the Manas River Basin, 2000–2020

The rapid socioeconomic development of the Manas River Basin from 2000 to 2020 has substantially altered land use patterns, thereby exerting considerable influence on regional sustainable development. This study employed GIS techniques, the Optimal Parameters-based Geographical Detector (OPGD) model, and the PLUS model to analyze the evolutionary patterns of land use, investigate the underlying driving mechanisms, and simulate the spatial patterns of land use under multiple scenarios for 2030. The results indicate that: (1) from 2000 to 2020, the spatial pattern of land use in the basin underwent notable changes, with cropland and built-up land expanding by 3300.80 km² and 219.87 km², respectively, reflecting a continuous increase in land use intensity; (2) Distance to highway emerged as the strongest driving factor, with its q-value consistently exceeding 0.80 throughout the study period. Interaction detection further revealed that the interactive q-values of all driving factors were greater than their corresponding single-factor q-values, indicating that the spatial differentiation of land use in the basin is governed by the synergistic control of multiple factors; (3) among the simulated scenarios, the ecological protection scenario effectively maintained the stability of ecological land while preserving land use type changes, demonstrating greater potential for regional sustainable development. The findings of this study can provide a reasonable scientific basis for the sustainable allocation of land resources in the Manas River Basin.