Perception, Experience and the Paper Trail: Corruption Perceptions, Bribery Experience, Budget Credibility and Audit Findings in Malawi, 2019–2026

Corruption in Malawi is usually measured in one of three ways: as citizens see it, as experts score it, and as public financial records show it. These measures are rarely set side by side. We put together four kinds of evidence using their original units and periods: three Afrobarometer rounds (2019, 2022, 2024), the Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI, 2012–2025), Ministry of Finance budget documents and Annual Economic Reports (FY2020/21–FY2026/27), and 412 findings from four Auditor General reports (report years 2022–2025). About seven in ten adults say corruption increased in the past year (69%, 69%, 71%), with no detectable change between rounds in design-based tests. Reported bribery among people who used public services is lower but rose from 25% to 36% between 2019 and 2024 (p < 0.001), and trust in the President fell from 44% to 27% between 2019 and 2022. Malawi's CPI score was 34 in each year from 2023 to 2025. In the fiscal records, about half of spending sits in five votes (47.4% of FY2026/27 Approved). Spending outturn exceeded the approved budget in three of four years (from −3.7% to +18.2%). For FY2025/26, the mid-year revised total (K8,589.2 billion) and the later end-year figure (K8,431.5 billion) differ by K157.7 billion; the later Financial Statement attributes the fall to expenditure controls and slow project implementation. Audit findings concentrate in reconciliation and reporting, missing documents and revenue. The largest stated amounts are central-account balances the auditor could not verify, not losses. The sources broadly agree that accountability concerns persist. However, perception, experience, budget credibility and audit compliance are different things, and with three survey points none can be tested against the others. We set out what the combined evidence can and cannot support.