LAB #4784 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = ACCUMULATION — improves win rate from 31.8% to 43.9% ( — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = ACCUMULATION — improves win rate from 31.8% to 43.9% (+12.1pp, n=139) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: The filter would have blocked every trade in the current window, since none of the listed entries carry a verified ACCUMULATION quarterly phase tag — including the two closed winners (USDCHF LONG, USDCAD SHORT) and the two closed losers (XAUUSD, AUDUSD). Net effect on this window: zero trades, zero PnL, and the two wins you actually banked would have been forfeited. That is a real cost, not a neutral outcome, and it means the +12.1pp claim cannot be validated against this window at all — the sample here is n=0 post-filter. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: If the 43.9% vs 31.8% holds out-of-sample, the filter is a genuine regime gate and worth 3-6 months of live running at reduced trade frequency. The risk is that n=139 is thin for a phase-conditional cut, and quarterly phase is a slow, autocorrelated var Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com