Development of a climate change jurisdictional vulnerability index in South Africa

Climate change threatens ecosystems and human well-being, making the identification of regional vulnerabilities essential for targeted adaptation. This study developed a Climate Change Jurisdictional Vulnerability Index (CC-JVI) for South Africa through the integration of socio-economic indicators (Statistics South Africa) and environmental variables (NASA online database). Indicators were normalised and aggregated across exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to compute provincial CC-JVI scores for two periods: 2001–2011 and 2012–2022. Comparative statistical analyses included the Shapiro–Wilk test for normality, paired-samples t-tests and Wilcoxon signed-rank tests for temporal change, and Mann–Whitney U and Kruskal–Wallis tests for interprovincial differences. Findings indicate marked spatial variation in vulnerability trajectories. KwaZulu-Natal exhibited the greatest variability, consistent with heightened extreme-weather exposure. Mpumalanga showed relative stability alongside a warming trend, while the Eastern Cape stabilised despite rising temperatures. Limpopo maintained a steady warming pattern and emerged as the most at-risk province. Classification results placed Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, and Mpumalanga as “Moderately vulnerable,” while Limpopo was “Vulnerable.” Normality testing suggested non-normal distributions for KwaZulu-Natal and Eastern Cape during 2001–2011, with improved normality in 2012–2022; Mpumalanga and Limpopo remained approximately normal across both periods. Significant temperature changes were detected for KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga, and Eastern Cape, but not for Limpopo. Interprovincial differences in overall vulnerability were not statistically significant (Kruskal–Wallis χ²(3)=6.047, p=.109). The CC-JVI reveals persistent climatic and socio-economic disparities, supporting customised adaptation planning. Recommendations include strengthening climate data systems, prioritising education and infrastructure investment, mainstreaming adaptation into development plans, promoting provincial collaboration, securing international financing, and conducting periodic CC-JVI reassessments.