Current and future climatic suitability of the cotton jassid, Amrasca biguttula in Togo under climate change: insights from ensemble species distribution models

Amrasca biguttula is an emerging pest of cotton and vegetable crops in West Africa, yet its spatial distribution and potential response to climate change remain poorly understood in Togo. This study assessed its current and future habitat suitability across Togo using an ensemble species distribution modelling approach to identify areas requiring priority surveillance. A total of 73 spatially independent occurrence records and 10 environmental predictors representing climatic and anthropogenic conditions were used to calibrate the models. The ensemble model showed high predictive performance (mean AUC = 0.963; TSS = 0.848). Current habitat suitability was highest in southern Togo, particularly in the Maritime Region and parts of the Plateaux Region, and decreased towards central and northern areas. Human footprint, precipitation of the driest month, isothermality and minimum temperature of the coldest month were among the most influential predictors. Host-crop-associated suitability was assessed in relation to the distribution and intensity of tomato, cotton and other vegetable production. Future projections under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 for 2041-2060 and 2061-2080 indicated more pronounced changes under SSP5-8.5, particularly during 2061-2080, with areas of both suitability expansion and contraction. Ensemble species distribution modelling provides a useful approach for identifying areas potentially at risk from A. biguttula under current and future climatic conditions. The resulting maps provide a spatial baseline for prioritizing pest surveillance and supporting climate-informed integrated pest management in Togo. Keywords: Spatial prediction, environmental niche models, pest management, surveillance, field survey.