Bicycle as a Tool for Urban Decarbonization: Evidence from a Latin American Megacity

The rapid urbanization of megacities in the Global South has heightened the need for sustainable mobility solutions that yield tangible climate benefits. This study assessed the carbon footprint reduction associated with utilitarian bicycle commuting in Bogotá, Colombia. A structured survey involving 100 regular cyclists was conducted to identify the conventional mode of transportation each respondent would have used in the absence of cycling. A network-based route estimation model was developed using ArcGIS Pro 3.0.3 for the 54 respondents whose origins and destinations could be geocoded. This model incorporated slope and traffic light penalties to estimate trip distances. Cyclists traveled an average of 12.26 km per trip, avoiding an average of 0.733 kg CO2e per trip (95% bootstrap confidence interval: 0.557–0.926) and 1.46 kg CO2e per day. A log-mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition revealed that trip distance accounted for 81.4–98.0% of the differences between categories, with minor contributions from modal share and intensity effects. Projections of growth factors for 2023–2050 estimated cumulative avoided emissions ranging from 6167.7 kt CO2e (0% annual growth) to 9702.5 kt CO2e (3% annual growth); fleet electrification could reduce the per-trip benefit by 30–60% by 2050 and cumulative mitigation by 10–25%. Given the non-probabilistic sample, city-scale figures should be interpreted as orders of magnitude. These results represent the first per-trip quantification of the climate mitigation potential of cycling in a Latin American megacity and provide a transferable methodological framework for regional cities.