Causal Attribution and Trust Evaluations in the Multilevel Structure of Civil-Military Relations

Public trust in the military and the civilian leaders who control it is central to democratic governance and national security. However, we know relatively little about how such trust is formed. This study examines how citizens update their trust in each actor following military-related events and whether information about the multilevel structure fundamental to democratic civil-military relations influences this process. Existing research has largely relied on performance theories, which assume a straightforward causal link between event outcomes and trust, and on observational data that complicate causal identification. Building on attribution theory, this study refines performance-based accounts by highlighting the multilevel structure. It conducted three survey experiments and a supplementary survey in Japan, a consolidated democracy with a considerable armed force and a population with a relatively strict view on civilian control. The results indicate that event outcomes influence evaluations of civilian and military actors to a similar degree, although underlying mechanisms are asymmetrical depending on the outcome’s direction. Moreover, differing from theoretical expectations, information about the multilevel structure does not substantially alter the effect of outcome information on trust in most cases, although it shapes attributional reasoning. These findings challenge conventional understandings of trust and accountability in democratic civil-military relations.