Method to evolution's model of the epidemic of the Covid-19. A case's illustration
Introduction: At present they yield different mathematical models to describe the evolution of the epidemic of the Coronavirus, however the realized predictions do not characterize themselves for the desired precisions, and at times, they had been applied models of continuous, probabilistic processes, still when we know that they have an operation with data, which represent a discontinuous phenomenon of behavior (of finite leaps), aspect that affects the approximations of the real development of the epidemic of the new Coronavirus. Aims to: they develop a mathematical algorithm for the prediction of the epidemic of the Covid-19 through mathematical quantitative and qualitative models in compliance with humanity's needs according to the evolution of the paradigms. Methods: Theoretical methods are used: analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, abstraction and concretion, and the logical historical method. Revision of reports of studies. Construction of function curves and their reasons for change. Mathematical methods, procedures and algorithms are applied, as well as the focuses of the clinical and epidemiologic methods. Results: The empirical methods applied are framed mainly in the observation of the records of the experimental data, the bibliographic review, in order to deepen the problem and obtain information on the main difficulties that affect the research process, and the published reports, from of the search for methods and procedures. The document review method is used, through books, and articles referring to the topic epimics evolution about experimental and statistics data in the Scielo, DOAJ, Latindex, Google Scholar Databases, Elsevier, among others. A method of work is designed, which makes easy the analysis of the quantitative real registered data to characterize the evolution of the epidemics. The May 6, 2021 is illustrated by means of the yielded information in Israel, as from the December 14, 2020. Conclusions: An alternative constitutes the mathematical designed algorithm that it assures the tracking and the control of the epidemics, as well as the performance of the data recollected to understand, explaining and interpreting essential features, from the topologic point of view, which represent the global tendencies of growth, decrease, and the cycle of epidemic attenuation.
Authors
- Luis Alberto Escalona Fernández
- Eliseo López Rodríguez
Institutions
- University of Holguín (CU)
- Universidad de Ciencias Médicas de Holguín (CU)
Publication Details
- Journal
- SAP Health and Policy
- Published
- 2026-10-29
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.62486/shp2026418
- Primary Topic
- COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00