Estimating the Foreign-Born Population Residing in Russia Using Incomplete Data

The article presents the results of a study that uses indirect methods to estimate the number of foreign-born people who were permanently residing in Russia in the early 2020s. In Russia, population censuses are the only source of data on the stock of foreign-born population. However, the 2020 Russian Population Census (VPN-2020), conducted in late 2021, was unable to provide an accurate count of the population born outside Russia. Information on country of birth was obtained for only 6.9 million people, while this information was missing for another 24 million. In the authors’ view, the figure of 6.9 million does not refiect the actual number of foreign-born people permanently residing in Russia, and the census data collected are of limited analytical value. In early 2025, the United Nations Population Division published revised estimates of the number of international migrants based on the results of VPN-2020. According to these estimates, Russia moved from fourth place, as reported in the 2020 edition, to tenth place. At the same time, the UN retrospectively lowered its estimate of the number of migrants in Russia as of 2015, without explaining the reduction of nearly 4 million over the intercensal period. These data were subsequently disseminated by other organizations, including the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the World Bank, as well as by individual researchers. The aim of this study was to estimate the probable number of international migrants in Russia at the time of the latest population census, disaggregated by country of origin, sex, and age. The calculations drew on data from the 2010 Russian Population Census (VPN-2010) and administrative data on two migrant fiows: people who obtained residence permits and those who arrived under the State Programme to Assist Voluntary Resettlement of Compatriots to Russia, who were not required to obtain residence permits until 2025. Despite incomplete data on the age and sex composition of these fiows over the intercensal period and the lack of information on repeat migration, the estimate obtained using the survival ratio method appears satisfactory and plausible. The authors estimate that, at the end of 2021, more than 12 million people living in Russia had been born abroad, although, depending on the assumptions made, the estimate could range from 11 million to 12 million. The article concludes by emphasizing the need to improve migration statistics in Russia and for international organizations to adopt a more critical approach to national data when publishing their estimates.