Predictive Surveillance for Andes Virus Transmission in the Americas

The 2026 Andes virus outbreak linked to the M/V Hondius cruise ship exposed limitations in conventional, case-based surveillance for zoonotic threats with potential person-to-person transmission. In the present opinion and analysis article, the authors argue that predictive surveillance, supported by artificial intelligence, ecological modeling, and the One Health approach, can strengthen preparedness for hantavirus transmission in the Americas. Current evidence suggests that selected models that incorporate epidemiological, climatic, environmental, and rodent-related variables may provide an anticipatory window of 2 to 12 months, depending on context and data inputs. However, implementation requires more than technical capacity. It depends on interoperable multisectoral data, transparent model governance, local validation, sustainable financing, and technology transfer to avoid widening inequities between health systems. Predictive surveillance should complement conventional surveillance by supporting risk communication, rodent monitoring, laboratory preparedness, and targeted public health action in areas where ecological and epidemiological signals converge.