FHAT Technical Note 060: SNXX Earnings-Shock Paths — Cycle Half-Life, Historical Analogs and Conditional Scenarios

This bilingual technical note examines SNXX, a 2× leveraged ETF tracking SNDK, ahead of the October 29, 2026 FY27 Q1 earnings release. It compares daily price-block decay and cycle half-life measurements with two historical earnings-decline templates: August 14, 2025 and August 5, 2026. The analysis distinguishes retrospective cycle midpoints from the current rebound-leg 50% retracement zone at USD 9.25–9.32. It outlines two conditional downside paths—an initial after-hours low or a second probe near the following session’s open—alongside an upside scenario requiring reassessment. Dynamic VWAP, moving averages and price acceptance provide subsequent validation gates. Frozen before earnings, this exploratory case study presents conditional scenarios rather than a directional forecast. Its historical sample is limited. Keywords FHAT; SNXX; SNDK; earnings announcement; leveraged ETF; cycle half-life; block decay; historical analogs; rebound retracement; after-hours trading; conditional scenarios; intraday risk management; FY27 Q1